Friday’s Relief Had Limits
September’s jobs report showed just 29,000 new payroll jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%. Revisions also erased 60,000 jobs from July and August’s combined total.
Stocks rallied Friday: the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2%, and the Dow added 0.5%. The rebound left a divided weekly result. The chart below shows the four major indexes’ weekly returns alongside the change in the 10-year Treasury yield.
The Financing Hurdle Rose
The Treasury’s official 10-year par yield ended Friday at 5.28%, up from 5.17% a week earlier. That’s an 11-basis-point increase, even with the weaker jobs report.
Higher borrowing costs raise the hurdle for capital-intensive projects and companies that need financing. At the same time, demand for equipment needed to power the AI buildout continues to offer company-specific opportunities. Our trades this week combined bullish business and catalyst ideas with selected bearish positions.
How We Traded It
Monday: Our first alert paired specialty ingredients and blood-management medical technology with a bearish retail-integration trade. All three filled. We repriced the medical-technology trade during the session; the afternoon adjustment explains that update.
Tuesday: Our next alert covered apparel growth, an immune-therapy data release and a bearish footwear earnings trade. The biotech and bearish trade filled; the apparel order didn’t.
Wednesday: We revisited the apparel idea using strikes with more open interest, but the new order also went unfilled. Our Wednesday alert also featured a gene-therapy trade that filled after a sharp selloff, giving us exposure to the company’s regulatory-review thesis.
The Week’s Final Two Sessions
Thursday: The physical side of growth supplied our two bullish ideas: power-management equipment and tungsten production outside China. We bought an options position in the first business and shares in the second. A bearish animal-health trade also filled.
Friday: Health and hard money supplied the day’s themes. Our chronic-disease monitoring and gene-therapy options trades filled. The proposed Bitcoin trade didn’t fill, and its day order was canceled.
Letting A Winner Run
AbCellera (ABCL 0.00%↑) was this week’s standout exit. We sold the first tranche of calls in August and closed the remaining calls on September 29. That staged exit let us take money off the table while retaining exposure to the later rally.
Here’s the historical entry card for our May 21st trade, showing the actual fill and original maximum risk. The position is now closed.
The completed trade returned 360% on original maximum risk, before fees. The exit card shows each stage and the total result.
Our Exits commentary also describes a planned refinement to how we evaluate outside stock pickers: promoting stronger sources and relegating weaker ones. The full post below includes this week’s exits and more detail.
Our Trade Record
We record all our exits, win or lose, in our weekly Exits posts and public spreadsheet. Through October 2, our 254 completed trades this year averaged a 24.5% return on original maximum risk, before fees. The year-to-date card below summarizes that record; partial exits are excluded until the position is fully closed.
What We’re Watching Next
We’ll watch whether Friday’s rebound broadens while financing costs remain elevated. On the company side, we’ll keep looking for businesses with strong demand or a meaningful catalyst, then check whether their shares and options offer an attractive entry. We’ll also keep using selected bearish trades alongside our bullish positions.
If you’d like to see the names behind these themes—and get our entry prices and exit plans before the market opens—become a paid subscriber below.
Our Start Here page includes a public sample alert and explains how we structure and manage our trades.
