The Signal Is Only The Start
Portfolio Armor’s Top Names ranking is one of our main sources of alpha. We rank securities by their expected returns over the next six months, net of hedging cost, and publish the top ten each week. Our public performance tracker now covers 165 six-month cohorts since December 2022. Those cohorts averaged returns of 17.67%, versus 9.70% for the leading market-tracking ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ( SPY 0.00%↑).
The ranking gives us candidates. We also require a bullish name to trade above its 50-day exponential moving average, prefer a Relative Strength Index reading between 40 and 60, check current catalysts and corporate actions, review existing exposure and demand an options structure that offers attractive asymmetry at a price at or below its fair value.
Both of today’s energy names passed those additional gates. Each closed above its 50-day EMA with an RSI in our preferred range. One earned a perfect 10 Chartmill Technical Rating; the other paired Technical and Setup Ratings of 7. That independent confirmation matters in a sector that can move quickly in either direction.
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Better Entries Need Better Exits
We’ve also tightened the other half of the process. Our new weekly Runner Review will recalculate targets for every uncapped long call and put using fresh prices, implied volatility, time to expiration, catalysts and the economics of the complete trade. Existing targets act as a ratchet: we can lower them as time or technical conditions deteriorate without automatically raising them after every favorable move.
Our new AI watchdog will surface positions for immediate review when an underlying breaks its 50-day EMA, falls 20% from its post-runner high, approaches its live target or enters a catalyst window. It flags the change; we make the exit decision.
That discipline is particularly relevant today. Both trades are tied to energy—one via gasoline and the other through liquefied natural gas exports. Energy trends can produce sharp gains, but they can reverse just as quickly. If these positions move in our favor, the objective is to capture more of the move instead of letting a winner round-trip.
Paid subscribers will find the two complete structures, maximum entry prices and initial exit plans below.
Today’s First Top Names Trade
Gasoline demand and RBOB futures theme.
RSI: 53; Chartmill Technical Rating: 10; Setup Rating: 6; Fundamental Rating: N/A.
