Gold Prints New Highs
Overnight, gold futures took out their prior peak, with front-month contracts tagging roughly $3,508/oz (spot briefly over $3,508.7). Macro still has the wind at gold’s back—soft dollar, falling real rates, and growing rate-cut odds—so this seemed like a good moment to update two open miner trades we put on when they were Portfolio Armor Top Ten names in May.
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY 0.00%↑)
Back in May, HMY made our Top Ten and also screened well on fundamentals. Per Chartmill at the time (0–10 scale; Piotroski 0–9), it posted: Overall 8 | Profitability 9 | Health 7 | Growth 7 | Valuation 9 | Piotroski F-Score 8.
What changed: Harmony reported strong FY results last week—but paired them with guidance for higher anticipated costs this fiscal year (management cited inflationary realities and updated mine plans). Shares sold off on the cost outlook despite the profit print. Morningstar
Our position & plan: We’re long the $15 September calls (paid $1.60). The position is red after the post-earnings wobble, but with bullion making fresh highs, HMY’s “cheap on screens” setup could get re-rated if gold strength persists. We’ll stick to our usual management: trim into strength and respect our risk band if the underlying invalidates.
Why it looks attractive here:
Rising tape for the commodity while cost fears are already in the price.
Multi-year production/grade improvements underpinning the prior fundamental scores. Morningstar
If gold holds above new highs into the Fed, miners with undemanding valuation marks tend to catch up.
Risks: Cost creep taking another leg higher; SA policy and power constraints in South Africa; beta to gold if macro cools the tape.
SSR Mining (SSRM 0.00%↑)
We highlighted SSRM in May as our gold doré (dor-ay) pick, noting doré is the semi-pure gold-silver alloy most mines ship to refiners (typically >80% Au, balance mostly Ag). That post also flagged a possible catalyst: restarting the Çöpler mine in Turkey.
Catalyst track: Management reiterated in August that Çöpler restart remains the top priority (alongside Puna life extension and advancing Hod Maden). The backdrop here is well known: Çöpler was shut after the 2024 heap-leach slide; the road back has been regulatory and technical.
Our position & plan: We bought the $12 December calls at $1.75, sold half at $4, and are holding the rest (Friday’s quote was roughly $7 x $7.60). If bullion continues to levitate and Çöpler milestones land, SSRM retains upside torque.
Why we’re still holding it here:
Leverage to bullion with multiple company-specific catalysts (Çöpler, Puna, Hod Maden).
Balance-of-year optionality already partly financed via our scale-out.
If the restart path clears, valuation could compress quickly versus producing peers.
Risks: Timing/terms of any Çöpler restart; Turkey regulatory cadence; headline risk tied to restart updates; commodity tape.
Where These Fit Now
As of Friday’s close, neither HMY nor SSRM appeared on our Top Ten. With gold at fresh highs, we’ll see if they re-enter when the next list prints. If they (or other miners) show up, we’ll consider our harvesting IV approach—credit put spreads to offset call costs and lower break-evens on bullish structures—consistent with our default “financed call” playbook.
Big Picture
Bullion making new all-time highs is the headline; miners have lagged at times this cycle but often play catch-up into strengthening tapes and dovish re-pricings. We’ll keep executing our process, scale risk, and let the tape tell us when to press or to pare.