Trade Alert: Whipsaw Market

Buying selectively in a violent tape.

Buying Selectively In A Violent Tape

Market action has remained violent, but today at least the violence is running in the other direction: stocks have rallied sharply on reports that President Trump may be willing to wind down the war even if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, along with conciliatory comments out of Iran. That does not mean the danger is gone, but it does suggest that markets are starting to price a possible off-ramp rather than only a worst-case escalation.

That said, our core view hasn’t changed much. We still think this war is more likely to be resolved within the next month or so. Our bullish trades are aimed several months out, with the idea that by the time those options expire, we expect to be on the other side of this conflict. In other words, we are not trading for the next headline—we are trading for where we think this situation is more likely to be by early summer and beyond.

Filtering Out Falling Knives And Overextended Names

Even so, we’re not trying to buy every dip or chase every breakout. We’re still using our RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Chartmill Setup screens to help avoid falling knives. In Monday night’s Top Names, only our #1 name passed those screens—but we’re still not placing a trade on it today. Part of that is because we think its space may still be vulnerable to further pullbacks in this environment, and part of it is because we already have an open trade on it that is currently in the black.

Three Bullish Trades, Carefully Priced

Instead, today we’re placing three bullish trades in names sourced from outside our top names. One is in a large AI semiconductor company, where the stock has sold off enough to set up a cleaner, lower-strike re-entry than the trade we placed there late last year. Another is in a cloud-communications company tied to enterprise software and AI-enabled contact-center workflows. And the third is in a more speculative photonics name that some investors think could eventually become part of the next wave of optical interconnect infrastructure.

In all three cases, we’re being extra careful not to overpay for options structures in this market. That means we’re using bids priced with this tape in mind: either we get filled at prices we like, or we pass. We’re not chasing anything here.

Today’s First Chartmill Trade

AI infrastructure / semiconductor theme

The stock is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 0.00%↑), and our trade is a combo consisting of these four legs:

1. Buying the September 18th, 2026 $220 call,

2. Selling the September 18th, 2026 $230 call,

3. Selling the May 8th, 2026 $180 put, and

4. Buying the May 8th, 2026 $175 put,

For a max net debit of $2.45. The max gain on 1 contract is $740, and the max loss is $745. This trade filled at $2.45.

Today’s Second Chartmill Trade

Cloud communications / AI contact-center theme

The stock is RingCentral (RNG 0.00%↑), and our trade is a hybrid combo consisting of these four legs:

1. Buying the October 16th, 2026 $40 call,

2. Selling the July 17th, 2026 $45 call,

3. Selling the July 17th, 2026 $30 put, and

4. Buying the July 17th, 2026 $25 put,

For a max net debit of $2.05. The max gain on 1 contract is $631 (if the short July $45 call expires in-the-money; if it expires out-of-the-money, or we buy-to-close it before then, our upside will be uncapped), and the max loss is $705. This trade hasn’t filled yet.

Today’s Third Chartmill Trade

Photonics / optical interconnect speculation theme

The stock is Lightwave Logic (LWLG 0.00%↑), and our trade is a hybrid combo consisting of these four legs:

1. Buying four of the September 18th, 2026 $8 calls,

2. Selling four of the June 18th, 2026 $9 calls,

3. Selling four of the June 18th, 2026 $5 puts, and

4. Buying four of the June 18th, 2026 $4 puts,

For a max net debit of $0.75. The max gain on one combo (4 contracts per leg) is $699 (if the short June $9 calls expire in-the-money; if they expire out-of-the-money, or we buy-to-close them before then, our upside will be uncapped), and the max loss per combo is $700. This trade filled at $0.75.

Unless otherwise indicated, all trades are day orders—they will be canceled at the end of the day if they don’t fill.

Exiting These Trades

My plan:

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• Call spread (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to sell the September 18th, 2026 $220/$230 call spread at a net credit of $8.00, and lower that price if necessary as we approach the September expiration.

• Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the May 8th, 2026 $180/$175 put spread at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.

RingCentral (RNG) (assuming it fills)

• Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the short July 17th, 2026 $45 call at $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the July expiration. If the short July $45 call expires in-the-money, I’ll sell the long October 16th, 2026 $40 call and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short July call. If I buy-to-close the short call before expiration or it expires out-of-the-money, I’ll share a GTC limit sell price for the long October $40 call in the comments here and via chat/email.

• Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the July 17th, 2026 $30/$25 put spread at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.

Lightwave Logic (LWLG)

• Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the short June 18th, 2026 $9 calls at $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the June expiration. If the short June $9 calls expire in-the-money, I’ll sell the long September 18th, 2026 $8 calls and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short June calls. If I buy-to-close the short calls before expiration or they expire out-of-the-money, I’ll share a GTC limit sell price for the long September $8 calls in the comments here and via chat/email.

• Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the June 18th, 2026 $5/$4 put spread at a net debit of $0.06, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.