Trade Alert: Revisiting Supermicro

The once left-for-dead server company returns to our top ten names after more than a year.

A model working the Supermicro booth at Computex in 2014. Note she was repping Nvidia as well.

A Holiday Programming Note

This will be the first of three posts you’ll see from me today—since the market will be closed tomorrow, I’ll post this week’s Exits post after the close today (which is at 1pm), and then this week’s Top Names post later tonight, as usual. Then you won’t hear from me again until Monday at the earliest.

Revisiting Supermicro

Last November we stepped into Super Micro Computer (dba Supermicro) (SMCI 0.00%↑ ) when shares were sliding under $25 on fears the company might be delisted after its auditor resigned. Our thesis then was straightforward:

1. A new auditor would show up. In fact, the company quickly lined up a replacement (BDO) and avoided a Nasdaq delisting.

2. It’s hard to fake servers. This is tangible hardware, not phantom financial receivables. Either Supermicro was shipping rack‑scale gear or it wasn’t, and channel checks suggested it was.

On that mismatch between perception and reality we opened an August 2025 $48 / $49 call spread for $0.15 on November 8th of last year—that was the “bonus contrarian trade” in the post below.

We’re currently up about 200% on that spread, and holding out for a >500% gain if SMCI is trading above $49 at expiration next month.

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Why SMCI is back on our screen now

Portfolio Armor’s engine pushed Supermicro to #1 in last night’s rankings—the first time the name has cracked the list in more than a year. The quant signal lines up with three fresh fundamental drivers:

• Blackwell preorder buzz. Mid‑June the company unveiled its full Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑) Grace Blackwell rack family for Europe, and initial integrator feedback points to lead times already stretching.

• Upcoming fiscal Q4 print (early August). Management guided to $5.6–6.4 billion revenue and $0.40–0.50 non‑GAAP EPS. Even the midpoint would mark a healthy sequential rebound from last quarter’s $0.31.

• Macro tailwind = AI datacenter cap‑ex. Dell ( DELL 0.00%↑) , for example, reported on May 29 that it now has a $14 billion AI-server backlog—roughly five to six months of queued orders—which suggests hyperscalers are still scrambling for rack capacity Supermicro can help absorb.

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Cautions to keep in mind

• Supply‑chain hiccups. An HBM or NIC shortage could push rack deliveries—and revenue—into October.

• Compression of lead times. If Dell and HPE suddenly catch up, Supermicro’s premium multiple could deflate.

• Reputation hangovers. A surprise cyber or accounting headline could still spook fast‑money longs.

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Below the paywall, we’ll lay out the new option structure we’re using to capture upside while minimizing those risks.

Today’s Top Names Trade