Trade Alert: Pressing Our Advantage
Our Top Names have now more than doubled the performance of SPY since the end of 2022. Time to add a new Top Names trade. Plus, we've got a Market Watchers trade as well.
Time To Press Our Top Names Advantage
Since December 2022, our Top Names have quietly turned into a pretty reliable source of alpha. As of the most recent data from Portfolio Armor’s performance page, across 138 rolling 6-month periods since then, our top ten names have averaged 20.39% over the next six months, versus 10.18% for the S&P 500 Trust (SPY). In other words, our Top Names have more than doubled SPY’s performance over that span.
Today we’re pressing that advantage.
We’re adding a new Top Names trade in a company that sits at the crossroads of analog foundry capacity, specialty process tech, and the ongoing AI hardware build-out. It also meets our tighter 2026 entry rules: RSI in the 40–70 band and a Chartmill setup rating of 6 or higher, so we’re not chasing a blow-off move. On top of that, we’ve set our entry limit at a discount to the options structure’s fair value, so we’re not overpaying for upside in what’s still a choppy tape.
A Market Watchers Trade In Latin America
We’re also taking a swing from our Market Watchers X list.
Latin American resurgence has been a productive theme for us recently. Last month we exited our Chile trade for a solid gain — a 3-leg combo on iShares MSCI Chile ETF that we entered at a net debit of $1.85 in November, then exited in stages (put spread, then half the calls, then the rest) for a 149% profit on premium outlay (70% on max risk), as documented here:
Today’s Market Watchers name sits at the intersection of that Latin America theme and energy—a major regional producer in the middle of a potential multi-year reshaping of both local politics and global energy flows. Like our Top Names trade above, this one passes our tighter entry filters (RSI in the 40–70 zone, strong Chartmill technical and setup scores), and in both cases we’re entering our option structures at a discount to fair value.
Full details on both trades below.
Today’s Top Names Trade
AI hardware / specialty foundry theme
The stock is Tower Semiconductor (TSEM 0.00%↑), and our trade is a combo consisting of these four legs:
Buying the October 16th, 2026 $140 calls,
Selling the October 16th, 2026 $155 calls,
Selling the May 15th, 2026 $120 puts, and
Buying the May 15th, 2026 $115 puts,
For a max net debit of $2.50. The max gain on 1 contract is $1,224, and the max loss is $750. This trade hasn’t filled yet. I’m going to keep this order open for today, and if it doesn’t fill, I’ll try again with TSEM the next time it hits our top ten. This trade filled later on 2/20/2026 at $2.50.
Today’s Market Watchers Trade
Latin American energy / rate-cut beneficiary theme
The stock is Ecopetrol (EC 0.00%↑), and our trade is a combo consisting of these four legs:
Buying four of the August 21st, 2026 $13 calls,
Selling two of the March 20th, 2026 $14 calls,
Selling two of the March 20th, 2026 $12 puts, and
Buying two of the March 20th, 2026 $10 puts,
For a max net debit of $1.50. The max gain on one combo (4 long August calls, 2 short March calls, 2 March puts in the floor) is uncapped, and the max loss per combo is $700. This trade filled at a net debit of $1.40.
Exiting These Trades
My plan:
TSEM (assuming our entry fills)
Call spread (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to exit at a net credit of $12, and lower that price if necessary as we approach the October expiration.
Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the May expiration.
EC
Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the short March 20th, 2026 $14 calls at $0.05, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the March expiration. If the short March $14 calls expire in the money, I’ll sell some or all of the August $13 calls and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short calls. After the March expiration, I’ll post a limit sell price for a GTC exit order on the remaining August $13 calls in the comments here and via chat/email.
Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the March 20th, 2026 $12–$10 put spread at a net debit of $0.05, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the March expiration.
Out of the EC put spread today at $0.05.