Trade Alert: Photonics And Crypto
Optics, ETH, And Letting The Market Come To Us.
Optics, ETH, And Letting The Market Come To Us
One Top Names play in a hot hardware niche, and a defined-risk flyer on ETH’s rebound
We’ve got two trades teed up for today: one in a Portfolio Armor Top Names stock at the center of the optical / photonics boom, and one in an ETF that holds Ethereum.
Our Top Names Stock
Our stock comes from the high-end optical / photonics space that’s been riding the AI and datacenter build-out wave: think faster links, better signal handling, and the plumbing that lets all of that GPU spend actually work. Rather than chasing shares outright after a strong run, we’re structuring a bullish options position that:
Gives us leveraged upside if the trend continues,
Keeps our max loss defined up front, and
Harvests some nearer-term implied volatility to help finance longer-dated calls.
It’s the same general playbook we’ve been using on picks-and-shovels names tied to AI and re-industrialization: use options to define risk, and let the stock’s volatility work for us instead of against us.
Taking Another Crack At Crypto
We didn’t time ETH well last year—we ended up buying near a local top—so I created an AI instance to help with entries and exits in volatile asset classes like crypto, oil, and precious metals, with the goal of avoiding that kind of FOMO entry the next time around.
Right now, that AI’s checklist has turned constructive on ETH:
🟣 Ethereum (ETH)
Price / Vol: ~$3.34k, up about +6% over 24h → 24h volatility: No alert (< ±10%).
1. Funding & 3m Basis:
Coinglass shows ETH perp funding hovering around its usual low positive/near-zero band, with no signs of extreme positive or negative prints.
→ Neutral2. Open Interest Context:
ETH futures OI has recovered to pre-Q4-liquidation levels while price is still well below last year’s peak; that’s OI rebuilding as price grinds higher, not a clear “up OI / down price” trap.
→ Neutral3. On-Chain Activity Mix:
Multiple sources report record or near-record active addresses, new wallets, and non-empty wallet counts – fundamentals “starting to surpass price performance.”
→ Bullish4. Exchange / ETF Flows:
Spot ETH ETFs flipped from small outflows to fresh net inflows (~$5M on Jan 12), ending a mini outflow streak.
→ Bullish5. Trend / Momentum:
ETH is up ~6% on the day and ~high-single-digits on the week, and recent TA notes have it trading above key moving averages with a constructive structure.
→ BullishETH Score: 3 / 5 Bullish ✅ (Notify)
Summary: ETH has strong on-chain growth, improving ETF flows, and bullish price structure – your checklist is flashing a constructive, risk-on bias here.
On top of that, the ETH ETF we’re using has a mid-50s RSI and a favorable setup score from Chartmill, while its overall technical score is still depressed—a combination I like when I’m looking for asymmetric upside from a potential bottoming process.
So instead of buying ETH exposure outright, we’re building a defined-risk combo: longer-dated upside via calls, partially financed by a nearer-term put spread under the current price. If ETH keeps grinding higher, the call benefits; if it chops or pulls back within a reasonable band, our risk is capped and the short-dated puts eventually age out.
Details of both structures—including strikes, expirations, and preset exit plans—are in the paid section below.
Today’s Top Names Trade
Optical / photonics infrastructure theme
