Trade Alert: Merger Mania
Rolling the dice on a chance to make a 30x gain on this merger of Bitcoin treasury companies.
Note: paid subscribers received this trade alert before the close via chat.
Today’s Merger-Theme Trade
We’re going back to Semler Scientific (SMLR 0.00%↑) —a name we’ve had some success with in the past…
Calls on Semler Scientific (SMLR 8.51%↑). Bought for $5.31 on 4/21/2025; sold (half) for $16 on 5/19/2025. Profit: 201%.
…Because of a fresh, outsized catalyst: an all-stock merger with Strive, Inc. (ASST 0.00%↑ ) at a fixed exchange ratio. ASST closed at $4.10 today. If this deal closes and ASST is over ~$4 at that time, the fixed-ratio math implies an SMLR value in the mid-$80s—meaning our new options package could be worth >30× our entry.
How to translate ASST → SMLR
Implied SMLR price = ASST price × 21.05
Boards of both companies have approved the transaction; closing still depends on shareholder approvals and other customary conditions, so there’s deal risk and spread volatility along the way. We’re leaning into that with a structure designed to harvest elevated IV while keeping downside defined and leaving upside uncapped if the stock tracks the ratio higher into completion.
Details below.
