Trade Alert: Looking Past The War
Why we haven't mentioned the war since Monday, and why we're still adding bullish exposure here.
Looking Past The War
In our trade alert on Monday, we wrote about the war with Iran, noting that we had exited an Iran-war hedge we had opened before the shooting started and were looking to bet against oil after its overnight spike.
So readers may reasonably wonder why we haven’t had much to say about the war since then.
We’re Looking Several Months Out
The answer is simple: while the war can affect market sentiment in the near term, the bullish trades we’re placing now are aimed several months out, and our base case is that this conflict will be resolved by then. That said, we’ve been monitoring the situation. If the war leads to another radical repricing in oil or in some other asset class, we’ll look to trade it accordingly. So far, even the burning crude carriers in the Strait of Hormuz haven’t moved the oil markets as much as last weekend’s panic spike.
Placing New Bets On Previous Winners
Today, instead of chasing the war directly, we’re looking at two names that resurfaced from our Chartmill screens. Both are previous winners for us. One is an energy name we exited profitably last month and are revisiting now with a defined-risk bullish structure. The other is an Ethereum-treasury company that also majority-owns an AI/HPC business; we tried to get into it yesterday without a fill, and we’re taking another swing at it today. In both cases, we’re using options structures designed to give us meaningful upside over the next several months while strictly defining our downside risk.
Full details below.
Today’s First Chartmill Trade
Energy/AI Power/Diesel Demand Theme
