Trade Alert: Fertilizers And Photonics
Bullish bets on one of our top ten names in fertilizers, and on a Market Watchers name in photonics.
Still Looking Past The War
On Tuesday, President Trump said talks aimed at ending the Iran war could resume in Pakistan within days, reinforcing the view we’ve had for a while now: this war is likely to be over sooner rather than later. That matters for markets, because investors don’t wait for perfect clarity before they start looking ahead. They start discounting the next phase early.
Two New Setups, One Partially Driven By The War
That doesn’t mean the effects of the war disappear overnight. In some industries, they may linger for a while even after the fighting stops. Fertilizer is one of them. The Iran war has disrupted ammonia and fertilizer flows through the Gulf, and Russia also imposed a one-month halt on ammonium nitrate exports through April 21. So even if the war ends soon, the supply effects may persist long enough to keep the backdrop supportive for fertilizer producers.
That helps explain one of today’s trades. It’s in a company with strong fundamentals and an upcoming earnings catalyst, operating in an industry where the geopolitical squeeze may outlast the conflict itself.
And An AI Infrastructure/Photonics Name
Our other trade is in a photonics name from our Market Watchers list. It just landed a major validation event: A large semiconductor company said it plans to develop a new optical transceiver module using the company’s lasers. That’s the kind of supply-chain confirmation that can matter a lot in a market still trying to map the winners in AI infrastructure. This is a small European company that currently trades over-the-counter here, so we’ll have to buy the shares if we want to participate now.
Maintaining Our Discipline
As always, on the options side, we’re not just buying stories. We’re pricing the structures first, estimating fair value, and then trying to enter at discounts to that fair value. On the stock side, with an OTC name, we kind of are buying the story here, but it’s a strong story. We want bullish exposure here, but we still want to be disciplined about what we pay.
Today’s Top Names Trade
Fertilizer / agricultural inputs theme
The stock is CF Industries Holdings (CF 0.00%↑), and our trade is a hybrid combo consisting of these four legs:
Buying the August 21st, 2026 $130 call,
Selling the June 18th, 2026 $135 call,
Selling the June 18th, 2026 $115 put, and
Buying the June 18th, 2026 $110 put,
For a max net debit of $3.25. The max gain on 1 contract is $1,062 (if the short call expires in-the-money; if it expires out-of-the-money, or we buy-to-close it before then, our upside will be uncapped), and the max loss is $825. This trade hasn’t filled yet.
Today’s Market Watchers Trade
Optical networking / AI infrastructure theme
The stock is Sivers Semiconductors (SIVEF), and our trade is buying the stock at below $2.25 per share. This trade filled at $2.24.
Unless otherwise indicated, all trades are day orders and will be canceled at the end of the day if they don’t fill.
Exiting These Trades
My plan:
CF Industries Holdings (CF) (assuming it fills)
Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the June 18th, 2026 $135 call at $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration. If the short call expires in-the-money, I’ll sell the August 21st, 2026 $130 call and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short call. If the short call is bought back early or expires out-of-the-money, I’ll share a GTC limit sell price for the long call in the comments here and via chat/email.
Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the put spread at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.
Sivers Semiconductors (SIVEF)
Shares: Open a GTC limit order to sell half of the shares at $6.75. I’ll leave a note in the comments here and via chat/email when I set a limit sell order on the second half of the shares.