Trade Alert: Fading Fear

Betting on the Iran War winding down. Plus, bullish trades on three names positioned to profit from the AI buildout.

Adding Bullish Exposure—And Fading Fear

In yesterday’s trade alert, we noted our view that the Iran war is more likely to be resolved sooner rather than later.

News that broke after we published that alert only reinforced that view. President Trump said his negotiators had received what he described as a significant “gift” from their interlocutor, reports circulated that a 30-day ceasefire is being discussed while a broader 15-point peace plan is debated, and markets initially rallied on those headlines before turning more cautious again as Iran publicly denied direct talks were underway. In other words, the path still looks messy—but the direction still looks more like negotiation than endless escalation.

That fits the broader pattern we’ve been talking about throughout the Iran war. We hedged against the risk of this conflict before it started, using a VIX options trade in our February 18th alert.

Today, we’re reversing tack: using a new options structure on VIX to bet that, over the next several weeks, the fear premium comes down as this war winds toward a settlement. At the same time, we’re also looking to add long exposure with bullish trades on three stocks—two from Portfolio Armor’s Top Names and one from our Market Watchers / Chartmill workflow (we bookmark interesting ideas from our Market Watchers X list, and add alerts to them on Chartmill to let us know when they pass our technical screens).

Four Trades For A Less Panicked Market

As regular readers know, Portfolio Armor’s Top Names have more than doubled the average performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ETF (SPY 0.00%↑) since December of 2022.

The three stocks we’re trading alongside the VIX setup are all different kinds of picks-and-shovels names. One is a South Korea ETF that functions in large part as a proxy for the AI memory buildout through its heavy exposure to Samsung and SK hynix. Another is a uranium producer positioned for the longer-term nuclear buildout theme. And the third is a Market Watchers name we first bookmarked from an X post before later getting a Chartmill alert on it—a company whose burn-in and stress-test systems sit underneath the silicon-photonics and optical-I/O stack that AI data centers increasingly depend on.

Full details below, including our preset exit orders, as usual, so we don’t need to babysit these trades.

Today’s First Top Names Trade

South Korea / AI memory proxy theme

The stock is iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY 0.00%↑), and our trade is a hybrid combo consisting of these four legs:

1. Buying the October 16th, 2026 $150 call,

2. Selling the July 17th, 2026 $155 call,

3. Selling the July 17th, 2026 $115 put, and

4. Buying the July 17th, 2026 $110 put,

For a max net debit of $5.20. The max gain on 1 contract is $1,374 (if the short July $155 call expires in-the-money; if it expires out-of-the-money, or we buy-to-close it before then, our upside will be uncapped), and the max loss is $1,020. This trade filled at $4.84.

Today’s Second Top Names Trade

Uranium / nuclear fuel cycle theme

The stock is Cameco (CCJ 0.00%↑), and our trade is a hybrid combo consisting of these four legs:

1. Buying the September 18th, 2026 $125 call,

2. Selling the June 18th, 2026 $130 call,

3. Selling the June 18th, 2026 $95 put, and

4. Buying the June 18th, 2026 $90 put,

For a max net debit of $5.50. The max gain on 1 contract is $1,200 (if the short June $130 call expires in-the-money; if it expires out-of-the-money, or we buy-to-close it before then, our upside will be uncapped), and the max loss is $1,050. This trade hasn’t filled yet. This trade filled later in the day on 3/25/2026.

Today’s Market Watchers Trade

AI infrastructure / silicon photonics test bottleneck theme

The stock is Aehr Test Systems (AEHR 0.00%↑), and our trade is a hybrid combo consisting of these four legs:

1. Buying the September 18th, 2026 $50 call,

2. Selling the June 18th, 2026 $55 call,

3. Selling the June 18th, 2026 $35 put, and

4. Buying the June 18th, 2026 $30 put,

For a max net debit of $2.70. The max gain on 1 contract is $1,169 (if the short June $55 call expires in-the-money; if it expires out-of-the-money, or we buy-to-close it before then, our upside will be uncapped), and the max loss is $770. This trade filled at $2.50.

Today’s Macro Trade

Iran war de-escalation / volatility normalization theme

The instrument is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), and our trade is a butterfly spread consisting of these three legs:

1. Buying 10 of the April 22nd, 2026 $20 puts,

2. Selling 20 of the April 22nd, 2026 $24 puts, and

3. Buying 10 of the April 22nd, 2026 $28 puts,

For a max net debit of $0.60. The max gain on 10 contracts is $3,400, and the max loss is $600. This trade hasn’t filled yet. I’ll keep this order open until the close on Friday if it doesn’t fill today. This trade filled at $0.60 on 3/25/2026.

Unless otherwise indicated, all trades are day orders—they will be canceled at the end of the day if they don’t fill.

Exiting These Trades

My plan:

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY)

• Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the short July 17th, 2026 $155 call at $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the July expiration. If the short July $155 call is in-the-money at expiration, I’ll sell the long October 16th, 2026 $150 call and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short July call. If I buy-to-close the short call before expiration or it expires out-of-the-money, I’ll share a GTC limit sell price for the long October $150 call in the comments here and via chat/email.

• Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the July 17th, 2026 $115/$110 put spread at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.

Cameco (CCJ) (assuming it fills)

• Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the short June 18th, 2026 $130 call at $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the June expiration. If the short June $130 call is in-the-money at expiration, I’ll sell the long September 18th, 2026 $125 call and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short June call. If I buy-to-close the short call before expiration or it expires out-of-the-money, I’ll share a GTC limit sell price for the long September $125 call in the comments here and via chat/email.

• Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the June 18th, 2026 $95/$90 put spread at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR)

• Calls / calendar (legs 1 & 2): Open a GTC limit order to buy-to-close the short June 18th, 2026 $55 call at $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach the June expiration. If the short June $55 call is in-the-money at expiration, I’ll sell the long September 18th, 2026 $50 call and use part of the proceeds to buy-to-close the short June call. If I buy-to-close the short call before expiration or it expires out-of-the-money, I’ll share a GTC limit sell price for the long September $50 call in the comments here and via chat/email.

• Put spread (legs 3 & 4): Open a GTC limit order to exit the June 18th, 2026 $35/$30 put spread at a net debit of $0.20, and raise that price if necessary as we approach expiration.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

• Butterfly spread (legs 1, 2 & 3): Open a GTC limit order to sell 5 of the 10 April 22nd, 2026 $20/$24/$28 put butterflies at a net credit of $1.80. If that fills, I’ll post a target for the remaining 5 butterflies in the comments here and via chat/email. If it doesn’t fill, I’ll lower that exit price as necessary as we approach expiration.