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The Portfolio Armor Substack
The Portfolio Armor Substack
Trade Alert: Earnings + Top Names

Trade Alert: Earnings + Top Names

A bullish bet on a beaten-down Scandinavian tech company company.

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Portfolio Armor
Aug 15, 2025
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The Portfolio Armor Substack
The Portfolio Armor Substack
Trade Alert: Earnings + Top Names
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Going Back To The Well

We made money trading this stock from our Market Watchers X list back in February. Back then, it had a Chartmill valuation rating of 7 (on a scale from 1-to-10, with 10 being best). Today, it has a valuation rating of 8, thanks to weak recent stock performance. It came up on my radar again this week, and I’m going to take another crack at it.

Why this setup, why now

Earnings hit next week. The options board is unusually friendly: front-month downside is priced rich, while slightly longer-dated upside is comparatively cheaper. That lets us build a position that gets paid to wear near-term risk while renting convexity if the report/guide surprises to the upside.

The structure (conceptually)

We’re using a diagonal risk-reversal:

  • Sell a near-dated put (harvesting elevated IV at a level we’re willing to own).

  • Buy an at/near-the-money call one expiry out (to capture an earnings pop and potential follow-through).

Net result: lower net cost and better break-even, with clean upside participation.

Risk frame

The name’s spring bear-market closing low was a bit under $14. Our short-put strike is set with that context in mind, so the plan assumes we’re comfortable owning near our effective basis if the print disappoints. Size for full assignment to keep it mechanical.

Exit logic (high level)

If the stock jumps, we’ll look to harvest the call and let the near-term put decay toward zero. If the stock dips on the print, we’re not forced to sell—our calls run one expiry longer, so we’ll wait for a rebound window before taking profits on them.

Plus Two “Top Names” Adds That Fit Our Core Themes

Alongside the trade above, we’re adding two new positions from our daily Top Names list that map cleanly to our macro pillars (reindustrialization / embodied AI / critical infrastructure). Details will be in the paid section, but structurally both are defined-risk combos:

  • Rationale: these boards show elevated put skew and reasonable upside pricing into their next catalysts (one captures the first post-earnings expiry; the other goes a touch farther out).

  • Payoff: maximum upsides in the 90% to 200% range, known maximum loss, and efficient margin—attractive when IV is doing the heavy lifting.

Today’s Earnings Trade

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