Trade Alert: Earnings 8/9/2023
Continuing our trade experiment with three bearish trades.
One of our trades today is a bet against the maker of Hush Puppies.
Continuing Our Experiment
In our previous post, we looked at what may be an easier way to make money than our recent earnings trades.
Trade Alert: Black Gold Again
Magda Ehlers/Pexels On The Fence About Social Data Earnings Trades I’ve been placing a lot of social data earnings trades, using other data sources for confirmation, but to be honest, I’m still on the fence about it. It seems like a tough way to make money consistently: even if you’re right about the earnings more often than not, the performance of the stock immediately afterwards can be a bit unpredictable. In contrast, consider this trade from a couple of months ago.
In this post, we’re going back to the harder way.
Recall that we’ve been looking at four metrics when placing these earnings trades:
LikeFolio’s earnings score based on social data. The higher the number, the more bullish, the lower (more negative) the number, the more bearish.
Portfolio Armor’s gauge of options market sentiment.
Chartmill’s Setup rating. On a scale of 1-10, this is a measure of technical consolidation. For bullish trades, I want a high setup rating; for bearish trades, a lower one.
Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). This is a ratio of the most accurate analyst’s earnings estimate versus the consensus estimate.
In a post over the weekend, I mentioned a new approach I was going to try this week, using the Piotroski F-Score as an additional screen.
A Trading Experiment
Trying Something Different This Week In my Exits post on Friday, as usual, I detailed all the trades I exited last week. As it happened, we had a lot of exits last week: Options Trades Skip-strike butterfly put spread on Carvana (CVNA -12.36%↓). Entered at a net debit of $1.61 on
Adding F-Scores to our screens today gave us three bearish names:
Social -22, F-Score 3, PA Options Sentiment Bearish, Setup 5, Zacks ESP 0%
Social -25, F-Score 2, PA Options Sentiment Very Bearish, Setup 4, Zacks ESP 0%
Social -54, F-Score 3, PA Options Sentiment Bearish, Setup 8, Zacks ESP 0%
Details below.
The Bearish Trades
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Portfolio Armor Substack to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.