Trade Alert: After Nvidia
Bullish bets on two names that fit our stricter entry rules, in case today's post-Nvidia earnings rally fades.
Nvidia To The Rescue
The extended AI complex and a lot of other momentum names are ripping higher today after yesterday’s strong earnings and guidance from the chip giant powering much of this cycle. The obvious question is whether we’re out of the woods now, or if this is just another sharp rally in a still-fragile tape.
For now, I’m sticking with the same approach I laid out in my “new rules for avoiding falling knives” post.
Instead of chasing every bounce, I want names where the tape has already started to repair, the fundamentals still fit my themes, and the options market lets us structure asymmetric bets with defined risk. Both of today’s trades check those boxes.
The first is one of last night’s Portfolio Armor Top Names: a company that finances and installs residential solar systems and home batteries. It’s a way to play the energy transition and the rising power needs of AI data centers indirectly, through rooftop solar and home storage, rather than trying to time the next leg in the semiconductor leaders themselves.
The second is one of our top names from last month that now pops again on our tight “Really Time To Buy?” Chartmill screen. It’s an energy-infrastructure company tied to offshore development—squarely in the reindustrialization and energy-security theme we’ve been focused on. We put a three-leg combo on it when it was a Top Name, already took profits on part of that position, and are still holding a runner for additional potential gains. Since the theme is intact and the stock now screens again as attractive on my tighter filters, I’m entering a new trade on it using longer-dated options.
Sometimes the best opportunities aren’t brand-new tickers you’ve never heard of, but names you already own that keep showing up on your highest-conviction screens. Today’s trades reflect that: one fresh Top Name, and one familiar name that’s still very much in play.
Today’s Top Names Trade
Energy transition / residential solar theme
The stock is Sunrun (RUN), and our trade is a combo consisting of these three legs:
Buying the May 15th, 2026 $25 calls,
Selling the March 20th, 2026 $18 puts, and
Buying the March 20th, 2026 $14 puts,
For a max net debit of $2.30.
The max gain on 1 contract is unlimited, the max loss is $630.00, and the break-even is with RUN at $22.36.
This trade filled at $2.30.
Today’s Chartmill Trade
Reindustrialization / offshore energy infrastructure theme
The stock is TechnipFMC (FTI), and our trade is a combo consisting of these three legs:
Buying the July 17th, 2026 $50 calls,
Selling the April 17th, 2026 $40 puts, and
Buying the April 17th, 2026 $35 puts,
For a max net debit of $2.05.
The max gain on 1 contract is unlimited, the max loss is $705.00, and the break-even is with FTI at $46.80.This trade hasn’t filled yet. I’m going to keep it open until 11/28/2025 if it doesn’t fill today. This trade filled later on 11/20/2025 at $2.05.
Exiting These Trades
My plan:
RUN
– Calls (leg 1): Open a GTC limit order to sell the May 2026 $25 call at $11.50. If we haven’t exited the call by February 26th (when Sunrun reports earnings next), I’ll post an updated limit price for it in the comments here and also share it via chat/email.
– Put spread (legs 2 & 3): Open a GTC limit order to buy back the put spread at $0.20, and raise that if necessary as we approach expiration.
FTI
– Calls (leg 1): Open a GTC limit order to sell the July 2026 $50 call at $9.50. If we haven’t exited the call by FTI’s next earnings, I’ll post an updated limit price for it in the comments here and also share it via chat/email.
– Put spread (legs 2 & 3): Open a GTC limit order to buy back the put spread at $0.20, and raise that if necessary as we approach expiration.
Out of the FTI call at $9.50 today.
That post-Nvidia rally faded faster than I would have guessed. Good thing we're staying careful here.