The Paris Plane Lotto

Lilly Executives Flew to Paris to Discuss an Abivax Merger.

Lilly Executives Flew to Paris to Discuss an Abivax Merger

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post here primarily about silver:

Toward the end of that post, I wrote:

While silver is our main macro focus today, we are also looking at a special situation in the biotech sector. We normally describe the trade rationale in the free section, but in this case, we are briefly alluding to a “Biotech M&A Lotto” here and spelling out the full details in the paid section. This is a high-risk, binary event trade involving a potential buyout of a French biotech firm, but if we’re right, it could lead to a 100%+ gain within the next 6 weeks.

That “Lotto Ticket” there was a trade on Abivax (ABVX 0.00%↑). In the paid section, I explained the thesis more directly. This wasn’t a fundamentals story or a chart setup. It was entirely event-driven:

“We are taking a shot on Abivax (ABVX). The thesis here is entirely event-driven. We are looking for a buyout. The company has a promising drug pipeline (specifically Obefazimod for ulcerative colitis) that makes it an attractive target for big pharma looking to replenish their immunology portfolios.”

The spark for the trade was something traders increasingly pay attention to: corporate jet tracking.

An Eli Lilly plane had been spotted landing in Paris, where Abivax is headquartered, fueling speculation that due diligence for a deal might already be underway. Given how binary buyout rumors in biotech can be, I structured it as a defined-risk options combo rather than a straight equity bet.

I also explained why the timing mattered:

“We chose the January 2026 expiration specifically to capture the ‘Biotech Super Bowl’—the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, which runs Jan 12–15. This event is historically the launchpad for major M&A announcements.”

At the time, all of this was circumstantial. Interesting, but unconfirmed.

That changed overnight.

A French newspaper has now confirmed that executives from Eli Lilly (LLY 0.00%↑) flew to Paris to discuss a possible merger with Abivax. The report is paywalled and in French, but thanks to a translation shared on X, the key details are now public:

“According to information obtained by La Lettre, a delegation from the American group attended a meeting on Wednesday, December 10, with the General Directorate of the Treasury, headed by Bertrand Dumont at Bercy. In preparation for this meeting, executives from the ‘big pharma’ company landed at Le Bourget airport aboard Eli Lilly’s Gulfstream G500 private jet on the evening of December 8, before departing on December 11 for Indianapolis, the headquarters of the group led by David A. Ricks.”

In other words: the plane story was real.

ABVX is up more than 15% intraday on the confirmation alone—and that’s before any formal announcement, premium discussion, or press release.

Whether this ultimately results in a completed acquisition or not remains to be seen. But this is exactly how biotech M&A stories tend to surface: first the jets, then the meetings, then the leaks, and only later the headlines.

For readers interested in how I’m actually playing this potential buyout—using a defined-risk structure designed for a binary outcome—you can see the full details in the original trade alert here:
https://blog.portfolioarmor.com/p/trade-alert-silver-slingshot

I’m also working on a new trade alert going out later today, which includes another biotech name with asymmetric upside potential. If you’d like a heads up when that goes out, make you’re subscribed to this Substack.