Exits, 8/7/2026
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in a spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None.
Options
Long call on Novo Nordisk (NVO 0.00%↑). Bought-to-open the August 14th, 2026 $47 call for $1.64 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 8/3/2026; sold-to-close for $1.08 on 8/7/2026. Loss: 12% of max risk (34% on premium outlay). Signal: Multibaggers.
Diagonal call calendar on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.00%↑). Entered at a $5.75 net debit on 8/4/2026; bought-to-close the short August 7th, 2026 $135 call for $0.20 on 8/6/2026 and sold-to-close the long August 14th, 2026 $125 call for $7.20 on 8/7/2026. Profit: 22%. Signal: Special Situation.
Short calls on Novo Nordisk (NVO 0.00%↑). Sold-to-open the August 7th, 2026 $51 call for $0.31 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 8/3/2026; bought-to-close for $0.10 on 8/4/2026. Profit: 68% on premium collected. Signal: Multibaggers.
Short puts on Precigen (PGEN 0.00%↑). Sold-to-open the October 16th, 2026 $4 puts for $0.59 per contract as part of a risk-reversal on 5/14/2026; bought-to-close for $0.10 per contract on 8/5/2026. Profit: 83% on premium collected. Signal: Market Watchers.
Short calls on Oscar Health (OSCR 0.00%↑). Sold-to-open the August 7th, 2026 $35 calls for an average $0.60 per contract as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 8/5/2026; bought-to-close for $0.05 per contract on 8/6/2026. Profit: 92% on premium collected. Signal: Top Names.
Short calls on CLEAR Secure (YOU 0.00%↑). Sold-to-open the August 21st, 2026 $75 call for $2.79 per contract as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 5/20/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 per contract on 8/5/2026. Profit: 93% on premium collected. Signal: Market Watchers.
Short puts on Palantir Technologies (PLTR 0.00%↑) . Sold-to-open the August 7th, 2026 $110 put for $2.12 as part of a 4-leg inverted hybrid combo on 7/29/2026; bought-to-close for $0.15 on 8/4/2026. Profit: 93% on premium collected. Signal: Bearish Rally Failure.
Short calls on CF Industries (CF 0.00%↑). Sold-to-open the August 21st, 2026 $140 call for $7.77 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 4/23/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 on 8/5/2026. Profit: 97% on premium collected. Signal: Top Names.
Short calls on Ouster (OUST 0.00%↑). Sold-to-open two August 7th, 2026 $50 calls for $1.71 per contract as part of a diagonal call calendar on 8/6/2026; expired out-of-the-money on 8/7/2026. Profit: 100% on premium collected. Signal: Market Watchers.
Long calls on Compass Pathways (CMPS 0.00%↑). Bought-to-open two August 21st, 2026 $8 calls for $2.52 per contract as part of a 3-leg combo on 1/28/2026; sold-to-close one for $5.40 on 8/5/2026. Profit: 114% on premium paid. Signal: Multibaggers.
4-leg combo on ATI (ATI 0.00%↑). Entered for a $1.50 net debit on 3/24/2026; exited the May 15th, 2026 $130–$125 put spread for a $0.20 net debit on 4/21/2026 and the October 16th, 2026 $175–$185 call spread for an $8.00 net credit on 8/6/2026. Profit: 420% on premium outlay (95% of max risk). Signal: Top Names.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week. I’ve focused on options instead of our basic strategy, which involves buying stocks and ETFs. You can find the performance of our top names since I launched this Substack here.
Options
Matching Exit Targets To Time Remaining
Two of this week’s exits illustrate the new, tiered approach we’re now using to manage uncapped long options after their paired short legs are gone:
To set an initial exit target for a remaining long option, we use what we call our runner method. For a call, we start with a target stock price equal to the current spot price plus 75% of the current at-the-money (ATM) straddle; for a put, we use the corresponding move lower. We then reprice the option at that target using its current implied volatility, dividend yield, and time to expiration. We compare Black-Scholes, Bjerksund-Stensland, and binomial valuations and use the most conservative model-consistent result as our initial limit price.
More than 30 days to expiration, or a meaningful catalyst before expiration: Use the higher of the runner target and the trade’s remaining break-even.
15–30 days to expiration, with no known catalyst: Give the runner target several sessions. If a higher target has already failed, use 50% of the at-the-money straddle as a step-down reference.
8–14 days to expiration, with no known catalyst: Use the runner target without a break-even floor. Give it one or two sessions, then move toward a salvage price.
7 days or less to expiration, with no known catalyst: Give the runner target about one session, then use a quote-driven salvage price, lowering it as necessary as we approach expiration.
Low-delta, out-of-the-money options: Accelerate the timetable when time decay is likely to outweigh the benefit of waiting for the theoretical target.
Puts: Apply the same framework in the opposite direction.
Both NVO and SPCX had August 14th calls with seven days remaining and no known catalysts during that period. We sold the NVO call at $1.08, realizing a loss on that leg while leaving its put spread open. We sold the SPCX call at $7.20, completing the diagonal for a 22% profit. We’ll apply these time-to-expiration tiers in future nightly reviews while evaluating known catalysts separately.
A Nightly Exit Watchdog
We now track each options entry in a dedicated spreadsheet, including its opening fill, remaining legs, current standing orders, expiration dates and any catalyst-specific instructions. A nearby earnings report, clinical readout or other meaningful event can justify keeping a higher target in place longer than the default time-to-expiration tier would suggest.
A read-only AI watchdog reviews that spreadsheet every night. It flags resolved short legs, approaching catalyst checkpoints, options crossing into a new time-to-expiration tier, and positions that may need new or adjusted good-’til-canceled (GTC) limit sell orders. I then review those positions, calculate any needed targets, place or replace the orders, and report material changes to subscribers as soon as I make them.
This new workflow gives us a consistent nightly process while preserving judgment where catalysts or market conditions warrant an exception.