Exits, 5/23/2025
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options
Puts on Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑), $106 strike. Bought for $1.99 on 5/2/2025; expired worthless on 5/23/2025. Loss: 100%.
Puts on Nvidia (NVDA 0.00%↑), $102 strike. Bought for $2.35 on 4/25/2025; expired worthless on 5/23/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Semler Scientific (SMLR 8.51%↑). Bought for $5.31 on 4/21/2025; sold (half) for $16 on 5/19/2025. Profit: 201%.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week, but since I started this Substack in December of 2022, our top names have averaged returns of 16.68% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 9.88%.
Options
I was aggressive entering all three of these trades, and that aggressiveness worked out with Semler Scientific, but it didn’t with Nvidia. Earlier this year, when I first turned bearish on Nvidia, I felt comfortable betting against it above $140, then above $130, and then above $120. Now, I think I’d like to see it hit $135 before betting against it again. We’ll see what happens with ahead of its earnings next week.
With Semler, I had a limit order in to sell half of my calls for a 200% profit, and that filled this week. Depending on how far Bitcoin runs (about 90% of Semler’s market cap is covered by its Bitcoin holdings), we could see larger gains on the half of the calls. In any case, if you can sell half of your position for >100%, you’re playing with the House’s money with the rest.
Tariff Tensions Return
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