Exits, 3/7/2025
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
Shopify (SHOP 0.00%↑). Bought for $108.37 on 1/3/2025; stopped out at $106.14 on 3/3/2025. Loss: 2%.
Options
Call spread on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 2.93%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.50 on 3/3/2025; expired worthless on 3/7/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Robinhoood Markets (HOOD -1.11%↓), $48.50 strike. Bought for $1.43 on 2/25/2025; (second half) expired worthless on 3/7/2025. Loss 100%.
Calls on Oklo, Inc. (OKLO -0.49%↓). Bought for $1.40 on 2/25/2025; (second half) expired worthless on 3/7/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Robinhood Markets (HOOD 1.14%↑), $45 strike. Bought for $1.46 on 3/4/2025; sold for $3 on 3/5/2025. Profit: 105%.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
We took a small loss on one of our top names holdings this week, but our core strategy of buying our top ten names, putting trailing stops of 15% to 20% on them, and replacing them with current top names when we get stopped out, continues to perform well, driven by the performance of our top names.
So far, we have 6-month returns for 89 top names cohorts since we started this Substack at the end of December, 2022, and our top names have averaged returns of 19.48% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 12.27%.
You can see how each of the top 10 names cohorts have done since I launched this Substack at the end of 2022 here.
Options
ZeroHedge says this was the worst week for stocks in six months, but I can’t blame the market for this week’s losing trades.
Trade 1 was just dumb. I placed a bullish bet on ANF based on it being oversold (RSI = 24) and undervalued (Chartmill valuation rating = 9 out of 10), while ignoring its terrible chart (Chartmill technical rating = 0), and it tanked after earnings. I think one reason we’ve had some success with my 7777 screen (Profitability, growth, health, and valuation ratings of 7 out of 10 or better) is that it also includes a technical component (Technical rating >=5).
Trades 2 and 3 I probably could have exited for profits of 200% or more on Monday morning, but I read a report on Sunday about how Monday was likely to be “an epic short squeeze”, so I raised my limit orders on both, and never got out of them. I did exit the first half of those trades for >100% profits last week though:
Calls on Robinhood Markets (HOOD 4.26%↑). Bought for $1.43 on 2/25/2025; sold (half) for $3 on 2/26/2025. Profit: 110%.
Calls on Oklo (OKLO 8.48%↑). Bought for $1.40 on 2/25/2025; sold (half) for $3 on 2/26/2025. Profit: 114%.
Lessons learned, and we’ll look to improve our approach going forward.
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