Exits, 3/21/2025
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options
Calls on Block (XYZ 0.00%↑). Bought for $2.26 on 11/19/2024; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Lemonade (LMND 0.16%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.15 on 11/26/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Bit Digital (BTBT -2.92%↓). Bought for $0.55 on 2/3/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Cerence (CRNC 0.05%↑). Bought for $0.90 on 3/3/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%:
Calls on FUTU Holdings (FUTU 3.08%↑). Bought for $2.15 on 3/17/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Innodata (INOD -2.33%↓). Bought for $2 on 3/18/2025; expired worthless 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Marvell Technology (MRVL -0.17%↓). Entered at a net debit of $1.45 on 1/17/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Oklo (OKLO -2.08%↓). Bought for $1 on 3/17/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Miller Industries (MLR -3.92%↓). Entered at a net debit of $2.57 on 2/27/2025; expired worthless on 3/21/2025. Loss: 100%.
Puts on Nvidia (NVDA -0.91%↓). Bought for $2.02 on 3/14/2025; sold for $0.11 on 3/21/2025. Loss: 95%.
Calls on Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME 3.73%↑). Bought for $2.15 on 10/1/2024; sold for $3 on 3/18/2025. Profit: 39.5%.
Calls on Robinhood Markets (HOOD 5.26%↑), $40.5 strike. Bought for $1.50 on 3/12/2025; sold for $2.10 on 3/19/2025. Profit: 40%.
Put spread on PDD Holdings (PDD -3.88%↓). Entered at a net credit of $3 on 3/7/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.60 on 3/21/2025. Profit: 120%.
Call spread on QIFU Technologies ( QFIN 1.15%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.60 on 2/28/2025; exited at a net credit of $4.10 on 3/17/2025. Profit: 156%.
Calls on FUTU Holdings (FUTU 3.08%↑). Bought for $2.15 on 3/17/2025; sold (half) for $6 on 3/18/2025. Profit: 179%.
Calls on Robinhood Markets (HOOD 6.70%↑). Bought for $1.32 on 3/13/2025; sold (half) for $4 on 3/17/2025. Profit: 203%.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD 6.70%↑). Bought for $1.32 on 3/13/2025; sold (second half) for $5.25 on 3/21/2025. Profit: 305%
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week, but since we started this Substack in December of 2022, our top names have averaged returns of 18.88% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 12%.
Options
Today was the biggest options expiration date for the quarter, so a number of our losing trades piled up here, including a couple we entered back in November (we often exit winning trades before expiration). A few more specific comments:
Exit 1, XYZ (formerly SQ), was the idea of a particular chartist on my Market Watchers X List. I have since removed him from the list (not because of this alone).
Exit 5, FUTU, had the same entry as Exit 15, which was emblematic of this week: some China-related trades that worked at the beginning of the week didn’t work at the end.
Exit 9, MLR, was from a value screen I no longer use, as it doesn’t seem to work in this market.
Exit 10, NVDA: We had the right idea with this one (betting against Nvidia after it hit $120 last week), but the wrong trade. Puts were overpriced here. Maybe a credit call spread would have worked better.
Exit 13, PDD: In this case, we had the right trade, selling a credit put spread. We probably would have lost money with our typical approach in this case, a debit call spread.
Lessons learned, and we’ll look to improve our approach going forward.
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