Exits, 11/1/2024
The Beneish M-Score; How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options
Call spread on Super Micro Computer (SMCI -9.10%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.33 on 10/14/2024; expired worthless on 11/1/2024. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Peloton Interactive ( PTON 23.49%↑). Bought at $1 on 9/13/2024; sold (half) at $3.50 on 10/31/2024. Profit: 250%.
Comments
No exits, but overall our core strategy continues to perform well, driven by the performance of our top names, which I updated in last night’s post.
Options
Super Micro Computer. This one looked cheap (Valuation Rating of 8 according to Chartmill) and the share price seemed to have been consolidating (Set-Up Rating of 7)—and the bad news related to accounting irregularities seemed to have been in the rearview. Then its auditor resigned, and the bottom fell out of the stock. I may have more to say about this one next week.
Peloton. This was one of our two “lottery tickets” from September.
Tiktok failed to load.
Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
The Beneish M-Score
The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model used to estimate the odds that a public company is manipulating its earnings. There’s an online calculator at Professor Beneish’s university, but it requires you to enter in a couple of dozen fields from a company’s filings to complete.
If I can get another 15 or 20 subscribers to the Portfolio Armor web app this year, I will pay my software developers to add a Beneish M-Score calculator to the site, where you just enter a company’s ticker symbol and it populates all the fields itself.
If You Are Concerned About Downside Risk
As a reminder, you can download our iPhone hedging app by clicking on the QR code below or aiming your iPhone camera at it.
If You Are Concerned About Political Risk
You can click on the image below to join Kalshi, whose election betting markets are now legal in the U.S. You and I will get an extra $25 to wager if you join via here.
