Back To The Hemisphere
The Pentagon's draft National Defense Strategy vindicates my February call.
Back to the Hemisphere
In February I argued Trump’s team was retrenching to a modern Monroe Doctrine as it accepted a multipolar world.
Two days after China rolled tanks and missiles through Tiananmen Square for an 80th-anniversary victory parade, Politico reported a draft National Defense Strategy that… does exactly that.
What I wrote in February
I said the common thread linking tariffs, deportations, shuttering USAID, talk of Panama and even Greenland was a deliberate repositioning for multipolarity—and a pivot “from globalism back to the Monroe Doctrine.”
That thesis had two pillars:
Admit multipolar reality. Stop pretending the U.S. can police Eurasia while its industrial base and borders hollow out. Portfolio Armor
Re-prioritize the Western Hemisphere. Reassert spheres of influence close to home instead of open-ended global commitments. Portfolio ArmorGIS Reports
What Politico just reported
Politico says the Pentagon’s draft 2025 National Defense Strategy—now on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s desk—prioritizes defending the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere over the years-long emphasis on deterring China (and Russia). The draft also anticipates domestic and regional missions: supporting border security, counter-narcotics in the Caribbean, and a posture review that could reduce certain overseas commitments—worrying allies in Europe. Politico
If finalized in this form, it’s a sharp break from recent strategies (2018/2022) that defined China as the pacing threat and assumed sustained forward presence abroad. The center of gravity moves home. Politico, U.S. Department of War
The timing: Beijing’s big show
On September 3, 2025, Xi Jinping presided over China’s largest military parade in years—marking the 80th anniversary of WWII’s end—with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un on the reviewing stand. The display featured nuclear-capable missiles and undersea drones; the optics were a choreographed “axis” tableau. Two days later, the Politico story broke. Sequence matters. Reuters, CBS News, The Guardian
Why this aligns with a “new Monroe Doctrine”
Spheres over hegemony. The parade underscored a consolidating Eurasian counter-bloc; the U.S. answer, per the draft NDS, is to solidify its own sphere—North America + the Caribbean + broader Western Hemisphere—rather than chase primacy across two oceans. Politico, Reuters
Domestic resiliency first. Border support, missile defense of the homeland, and Caribbean interdiction aren’t one-offs—they’re the main effort in the draft. That is textbook hemispheric defense. Politico
Burden shift to allies. Expect louder demands that Europe and Asian partners shoulder more for their neighborhoods if U.S. resources refocus west of the Atlantic. Politico, Defense One
As I wrote in February: “We are moving from globalism back to the Monroe Doctrine.” That line reads less like provocation now and more like policy prose. Portfolio Armor
What to watch next
Final NDS text & Global Posture Review. Does “Western Hemisphere first” survive interagency edits? Watch how it recasts force posture and missile defense at home. Politico
Budget tells. Funding shifts from European initiatives and certain Indo-Pacific footprints toward homeland defense, maritime patrol in the Caribbean/Gulf, and continental logistics. Politico
Allied responses. NATO/EU and U.S. Pacific partners will read this as a burden transfer—look for accelerated European rearmament and sharper regional hedging in Asia. Defense One
Investing angle
If Washington codifies a hemispheric defense doctrine, the spend mix tilts toward border tech, air & missile defense of CONUS, maritime domain awareness in the Caribbean/Gulf, and Western-Hemisphere supply chains (nearshoring/Mexico logistics, Gulf/Atlantic energy). Exposure should track those budgets and build-outs rather than far-forward expeditionary bets. (I’ll dig into tickers/structures separately once the documents land.)
Bottom line: Beijing staged multipolar optics on Wednesday; by Friday, Washington’s strategy—at least in draft—mirrored the world as it is, not as it was. That’s exactly the shift I flagged in February.
Maybe We Can All Be Friends.
The head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, and its best Western-facing diplomat, Kirill Dmitriev, wrote on his X account,
77% of mostly Russian users in my Instagram poll preferred the second picture—a partnership with the US. (https://instagram.com/share/_qjbugMkt). The world wants to see—and will benefit from—Russia, US, China, & India partnering for peace and prosperity.
Another Timely Call
In yesterday’s Trade Alert, we added a new bullish bet on Robinhood Markets (HOOD 2.10%↑).
After the close on Friday, news broke that Robinhood Markets had been added to the S&P 500 index. That should provide a good tailwind for our latest bullish trade on Robinhood.