A Violent Selloff, Then A Rebound

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Thursday, November 5th. It recovered 1.1% Friday and another 2.7% Monday. The damage in individual AI stocks was considerably worse than the index decline.

That repricing has created opportunities in companies whose recent results show accelerating growth. The investment question is how much we’re paying for the earnings those businesses can produce as the AI buildout continues.

Faster Growth At A Lower Price

AXT manufactures semiconductor substrates, including indium phosphide used in high-speed optical connections. Moving data between the chips in an AI system creates demand for the materials and components in those connections.

In its October 29th earnings report, AXT reported revenue growth of 162% from a year earlier and 54% from the previous quarter. Gross margin expanded to 56%, from 22% a year earlier. Net income attributable to AXT reached $25.7 million, compared with a loss a year earlier.

During Thursday’s crash, AXTI was down roughly 20% when we reviewed it for a new trade, with the shares around $38. At that price, the stock cost about 24 times an annualized version of its latest quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share. That comparison assumes the quarter’s earnings recur; sustaining growth depends on demand, capacity expansion and export approvals for its China-based manufacturing.

We liked the combination of a sharply lower price and stronger operating results enough to open another bullish options trade. Our history with AXT helped us assess the opportunity quickly.

A Repeat Winner, And Another Entry

Two previous AXTI trades fully closed earlier this year returned 55% and 347% on their original maximum risk. We then opened another trade on October 26th.

Here was that trade’s original entry plan, including its historical Chartmill ratings. The position is now closed.

We fully closed that three-contract call diagonal on October 28th for a 95% return on original maximum risk in two days. The actual entry was a $2.10 net debit and the exit a $4.10 net credit. Here was the result:

A week later, the November 5th selloff gave us another opportunity in the same business. We opened a new AXTI trade in our rare intraday Blood In The Streets alert, following the earnings report described above.

Our complete exits record tracks the results across our trades.

Finding The Turn Earlier

We’re also applying our early recovery process to identify opportunities while stocks remain well below their recent highs. We start with companies we already follow, look for the first improvement in their share prices, and revisit the business case.

One version looks for stocks at least 20% below their highest close over the previous 63 trading sessions, followed by a close above each of the previous five closes. It also requires 14-day RSI, a measure of price momentum, of at least 35 and above its reading five sessions earlier. We then check the latest results, outlook, funding and catalysts. We explained the approach in our November 3rd Buying The Turn alert:

What happens after the rebound will help distinguish the next opportunities. Stocks that hold their gains, form higher lows and continue to deliver stronger results become more compelling candidates. Weakening orders or guidance would change the investment case.

Protection While The Recovery Develops

Investors who want exposure to a recovery can also choose how much downside they’re willing to accept. Our Portfolio Armor iPhone app scans for the least-expensive qualifying puts and collars to hedge stocks and ETFs. Enter a holding and your loss threshold, and it searches for protection. Tap the image below to see the app.

The hedging tools are also available through Portfolio Armor Basic, alongside our daily Top Names. Portfolio Armor Premium adds complete hedged-portfolio construction.

The crash has improved the prices available in businesses we’re following. Our next entries will depend on the combination of operating progress, an attractive setup and options pricing that lets us take the risk on favorable terms. That’s where we’re looking for the next opportunity.

If someone you know is weighing the tech selloff, share this look at how we’re finding opportunities.

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Our Start Here guide explains how we find opportunities, structure trades and track the results:

A Fresh Signal In A Familiar Name

One of today’s companies gave us three profitable completed trades this year. Now it has passed our Fundamental Early Recovery screen.

The screen starts with a meaningful decline from a recent high. It then looks for a renewed price upturn and improving business fundamentals, including the ability to fund the company’s plan. Friday’s signal combines a price recovery with a stronger operating report and funding for the next phase of product deliveries.

A Second Route Through Better Margins

Alongside it, we’re adding a laboratory-tools business found through our Multibaggers research. That’s our tracked group of outside analysts with multiple recent 100%+ stock winners. This company has a growing installed base, more recurring sales and improving gross margins.

We’re using different asymmetric bullish structures to give these operating theses several months to develop. Below are the companies, trade structures, and the maximum entry prices and the exit plans I’ll follow.

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New to our alerts? Start Here explains how we trade and links to our public record.

Today’s Multibagger’s Trade

Theme: Better margins and recurring demand for laboratory tools.

RSI: 54; Chartmill Technical Rating: 8; Setup Rating: 6; Fundamental Rating: 3.

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A Rock Star Meets A Reckoning

Jensen Huang, the cofounder and CEO of Nvidia (), gets the sort of reception in Asia that most chief executives can only dream about. Fans follow him to restaurants. Cameras track his meals. At Computex in Taiwan in June 2024, a woman asked him to autograph the clothing across her chest, and he obliged.

Zero Hedge resurfaced that episode on Sunday with the caption, “There were signs”:

The celebrity treatment extends to noodle runs. During his Beijing visit in May, onlookers filmed his restaurant outing. Huang has become a recognizable face of the AI boom—and now its most conspicuous source of gossip.

The Confession And The Investigation

On Sunday, the Nvidia founder admitted being unfaithful to his wife. His apology followed Financial Times reporting that U.S. intelligence believed he had a romantic relationship with Megaspeed executive Alice Huang, an alleged Chinese intelligence operative. Zero Hedge covered that report and Sunday’s developments.

Huang’s admission establishes the infidelity. The security questions are the subject of an independent board investigation, overseen by independent directors with outside counsel. The board says it currently has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised.

Our expectation is that Huang remains CEO. The more interesting market question is what a politically weakened Huang might be willing to do to keep Washington on his side.

Why We Expect Him To Stay

Nvidia’s board expressed confidence in Huang and his leadership team while announcing the inquiry. Its directors are investigating while supporting his continued leadership.

Replacing the founder would create its own risk. Huang’s value includes his product judgment, relationships with customers and suppliers, and ability to sell a vision of where computing is going. Our assessment is that directors will need a substantial business or security reason to incur the disruption of replacing him.

Trump also defended Huang on Sunday. Both the company and the administration have an interest in keeping America’s leading AI chip business successful. That gives Huang considerable protection, subject to what the investigation uncovers.

Elon Musk also agreed with Shaun Maguire, who called Huang “irreplaceable for America’s AI leadership.” Here’s Musk’s post endorsing that argument:

The China Problem Predates The Affair News

The relationship with Megaspeed was already drawing scrutiny months ago. On May 13, short seller Culper Research published a thread questioning the company’s connections to China and highlighting Huang’s proximity to Alice Huang. John Hempton pointed readers back to it on Sunday. Here’s the original May post and its photographs:

Culper disclosed a short position in Nvidia, giving it a financial interest in a falling share price. Its thread is useful evidence that questions about the business relationship were public months before this weekend. The photographs establish public proximity; the intelligence allegations require their own evidence.

Congressional scrutiny is concrete, too. Three Republican committee chairmen requested a closed-door briefing on Huang’s interactions with Alice Huang and Nvidia’s security procedures. They asked for November 18, with a response or alternative availability by November 11.

That creates a plausible outcome in which Huang keeps his job but faces more constraints on China business. Presidential support for Nvidia can coexist with tougher scrutiny of its customers, intermediaries and export compliance. The incoming Democratic Congress could intensify that scrutiny, even with Trump’s backing.

What Trump Could Ask For

Huang’s interests and Trump’s could converge on more American production. The company wants political support and a dependable supply chain. Trump wants visible investment and jobs he can claim as an economic win.

Nvidia already announced American manufacturing plans in April 2025: Blackwell chip production in Arizona and supercomputer manufacturing with partners in Texas. It outlined up to $500 billion of U.S. AI infrastructure production over four years through those partnerships.

There’s a more recent benchmark, too. In its October 21 supply-chain announcement, Nvidia committed a $1.1 billion capacity reservation advance to KYEC for new U.S. testing facilities and equipment, targeting high-volume production in April 2027. An acceleration or expansion would give Trump something concrete to point to, measured against a plan already on the record.

We see a possible political bargain here: Huang helps Trump deliver a more tangible American manufacturing success, and Trump continues backing Nvidia’s role in the AI race.

What Investors Should Watch

The next scheduled business checkpoint is Nvidia’s November 17 earnings call, followed by the date congressional chairmen requested for their briefing. Investors will be able to compare the company’s business outlook with the evolving political and security risks.

Our base case is continuity at the top, coupled with greater pressure on Huang’s dealings with China. A concrete security finding could change the leadership calculation. A specific increase in American manufacturing could show how Huang intends to strengthen his position in Washington.

Keeping Exposure While Limiting Downside

If you own Nvidia and want to keep your shares while the investigation unfolds, Portfolio Armor can help you hedge. Our iPhone app and Portfolio Armor Basic website find optimal puts and collars for stocks and ETFs you already own, using the maximum decline you’re willing to accept.

Our Start Here post explains how we trade and links to our public record:

Reviewing Our Remaining Options

Our weekly Runner Review sets initial exit targets for newly uncapped calls and revisits existing targets as time and company events change the outlook. The targets below reflect Friday’s option prices and implied volatilities, with upcoming company catalysts included in the review.

I’ve placed orders with the new targets i…

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After The Tech Wreck

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% Thursday—its worst session since April 4, 2025, during the selloff following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

The damage in leading AI names was much worse. Micron and Advanced Micro Devices each fell about 17% Thursday, Lam Research fell 16%, and Nvidia lost 9%. The normalized chart below tracks their stock prices alongside the Nasdaq from October 6 through Friday, with every series starting at 100:

Friday’s 1.1% rebound left the Nasdaq down about 3% for the week. The jury’s still out on whether that was the beginning of a recovery or a pause before a continued correction.

The prospect of delays in data-center construction sharpened an existing financing problem: projects need to start generating revenue while the cost of funding them keeps running. The Wall Street Journal reported that stock-picking hedge funds unwound positions in October at their fastest pace in over a decade, with firms also cutting staff before Thursday’s selloff intensified.

The Buildout Continues

Friday brought a concrete example of the buildout changing hands: Google acquired Crusoe’s Wyoming data-center site after Crusoe finished predevelopment work. The investment returns from AI will depend in part on who owns the infrastructure and how much they pay to finance it.

Friday’s October jobs report showed 165,000 additional payroll jobs and 4.1% unemployment. For investors in capital-intensive businesses, the question remains how growing demand turns into cash—and how much financing it takes to get there.

Our response has been to look for early recoveries in businesses whose investment cases hold up, alongside companies approaching catalysts that can change their value. This week’s trades ranged from an emerging-market consumer platform to cancer diagnostics and bladder-cancer immunotherapy.

How We Traded It

Monday: We opened three healthcare trades: a Top Names selection serving drug development and two biotech catalyst ideas from our own research. All three filled. Our Monday alert explains the investment cases and original plans.

Tuesday: Our Fundamental Early Recovery screen identified an emerging-market consumer platform after its shares started turning higher. Our bullish setup combined that improving price action with stronger operating results and higher profitability guidance. The recovery alert explains the screen and the setup.

Wednesday: A cancer-diagnostics company first found through our Market Watchers list also appeared among our Top Names. We added a short-term earnings trade alongside the longer-dated position we’d opened in August. Our two-signal alert explains why the combination brought us back.

Thursday: Buying Into The Selloff

Thursday: Our morning healthcare alert proposed three trades: two revised Multibaggers ideas whose orders hadn’t filled the prior week, plus a Market Watchers idea.

Later, we published a rare second trade alert, Blood In The Streets, after a high-conviction name from our watchlist plummeted more than 20% on the day. The crash gave us an opportunity to add a trade at a significantly lower entry price.

That alert also reminded risk-averse investors about our hedging tools. Our iPhone app scans for the optimal puts and collars to protect stocks and ETFs at the lowest possible cost. Enter what you own and the largest decline you’re willing to accept, and the app does the rest. Tap the illustration below to see the app:

On the web, Portfolio Armor Basic includes those individual-position hedging tools and our daily Top Names. Premium adds portfolio construction that combines our Top Names with optimal hedges, using the investment amount and maximum six-month decline you choose.

The graphic below compares historical return illustrations for our three approaches to investing:

Friday’s Biotech Entry

Friday: We opened another bullish trade in a biotech business ahead of earnings. Our Friday alert explains the business case and why we considered the opportunity worth the earnings risk.

This Week’s Exits

We completed three trades this week—one gain and two losses—and made 24 partial exits.

Our exits post collects this week’s results:

Our 283 trades fully exited in 2026 through November 6th averaged 20.4% on original maximum risk. Larger average gains on winners drove the positive overall result:

The 52.0% annualized figure is a historical equal-risk illustration assuming continuous deployment, without compounding. Our full exits record shows the individual outcomes.

Biotech Gets A Bid

One silver lining this week was biotech. One of our Monday trades was CG Oncology (CGON), which is developing cretostimogene, an immunotherapy for bladder cancer. We entered a call diagonal at a $4.00 net debit. Monday’s original entry card shows the published $4.20 maximum and that day’s Chartmill ratings:

View full-size entry card

In its Friday business update, CG Oncology said it expects topline results from its Phase 3 PIVOT-006 trial this month, additional clinical data in December, and completion of its initial biologics-license application in the fourth quarter. Those are distinct opportunities for new information to change the market’s assessment of the company. Our original January short-call and April long-call expirations extend beyond that expected sequence.

CGON closed Friday at $75.99, up 17% for the day and 17% for the week. The five-session chart below tracks its share price.

What We’re Watching Next

The October inflation report is due Tuesday, November 10th, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It will give investors another reading on the price pressures facing consumers and businesses. CG Oncology’s expected November data are another concrete checkpoint. Across our watchlist, we’ll also be looking for stronger operating results to meet improving price action, and for option prices that leave enough potential reward for the risk.

We’ll also use the early-recovery screens we developed to look for the best names showing signs of bottoming. The aim is to get back into strong businesses early in a turn, while much of the potential recovery still lies ahead.

New to our alerts? Our scheduled new-entry alerts go out before the market opens and before we enter the trades ourselves. Paid subscribers get the company research, exact orders and ongoing management. Subscribe for our next trades, or choose a free subscription for public posts.

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The Portfolio Armor Substack

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3 months ago

Our Year-To-Date Performance

Our year-to-date trade performance through November 6th appears below.

This Week’s Trade Exits

As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in a spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.

Each exit card links to the relevant exit comment in the original trade alert.

Stocks or Exchange Traded Products

None.

Options

Comments

Stocks and exchange-traded products

We didn’t have any stock or ETF exits this week, but our Top Names record remains strong. It currently covers 175 completed six-month cohorts, with an average stock return of 18.06%, versus 9.87% for SPY over the same periods.

Options

A Brutal Week For Stocks

This was a brutal week for stocks. The Wall Street Journal reported that October losses had already driven stock-picking hedge funds to unwind positions at the fastest pace in more than a decade, before Thursday’s selloff intensified.

The Downside Of Put Spread Financing

We took several put spread losses this week after sharp declines triggered early assignments. That tied up buying power until we exercised the protective puts or sold the resulting shares and long puts. The Ichor loss slightly exceeded 100% because selling the assigned shares and protective put separately cost six cents per share more than the spread’s $5 width. That one, I should have probably exercised.

Selling a put spread can reduce the cost of a bullish trade, but it also adds risk if the stock falls significantly. In recent months, I’ve been more selective about using that financing: the credit needs to justify the extra risk. Cutting a $6 debit to $5 probably isn’t enough to justify a $5-wide put spread. Turning a $3 debit into a $2 credit is a much more substantial contribution.

Readers who want a lower-risk approach can revisit the free section of our Blood In The Streets alert for our hedging and hedged-portfolio tools, and the tradeoff between downside protection and potential return.

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A Sharper Choice For Friday

Overnight put assignments have left us with limited dry powder heading into Friday’s open. We want to put that capital into a high-conviction idea: a familiar name that’s fallen sharply over the past month, with a catalyst approaching that could give investors a reason to reassess it.

We’re leaning toward biotech for this trade. Scientific progress, demand for better treatments and the tools that enable research offer a different set of drivers from spending on the AI infrastructure buildout.

Less Reliance On New Data Centers

One risk facing that buildout is political. Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and independent Senator Bernie Sanders have proposed a federal data-center moratorium. Their bill would pause new AI data-center construction until Congress establishes safeguards covering workers, consumers and the environment.

Restrictions of that kind could delay orders for the equipment going into new facilities. That gives us a reason to consider businesses whose demand depends more directly on biological research and medicine. For this trade, that’s an attractive source of diversification.

A Catalyst To Test The Thesis

Today’s name combines two of our sources of alpha: Multibaggers research and Portfolio Armor’s Top Names. Our Multibaggers group follows outside analysts who’ve identified multiple stocks that doubled and complements our broader Market Watchers X list. Portfolio Armor’s algorithm estimates potential return over the next six months and ranks securities after accounting for hedging costs. This name made the top ten at Thursday’s close and was also a Top Name when we last entered it in October.

We’ve already closed three winning trades in this name this year, with gains of 103%, 104% and 132%.

The broader Top Names record adds context to this second source of alpha. Across 175 completed weekly cohorts, the average six-month unhedged return was 18.06%, versus 9.87% for SPY over the same periods. The graphic below compares those average returns.

The business has been growing and improving its gross margin. An upcoming earnings report will test whether that progress can continue. We’re making a specific exception to our usual technical entry requirements here, based on those operating prospects, the selloff and the approaching catalyst.

Below are the company, the maximum entry debit and the exit orders I plan to enter after a fill.

Today’s Multibagger’s Trade

Theme: Synthetic biology tools for research and drug discovery.

RSI: 39; Chartmill Technical Rating: 5; Setup Rating: 3; Fundamental Rating: 4.

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A Brief Market Comment

The Nasdaq fell more than 5% earlier today as AI stocks led the selloff. In the free section of today’s trade alert, we addressed a few approaches to a day like this, from limiting your downside risk to looking for opportunities on our watchlist:

Our Basic Strategy

Our basic strategy is to buy equal dollar amounts of the Portfolio Armor web app’s top ten names, put trailing stops of ~20% or more on them, and replace them with names from the current week’s top ten when we get stopped out of a position—there are no options involved in this strategy.

Across 175 completed weekly cohorts, our top ten names have averaged a six-month return of 18.06%, versus 9.87% for SPY over the same periods.

Another Use For Our Top Names

We also use our top names in options trades, such as this one we finished exiting last month:

Equinor, the Norwegian oil and gas company, was a Top Names trade on May 27th. Here are its historical entry terms:

This trade filled at a $0.75 net debit.

We finished exiting it on October 16th:

Each trade’s entry and exit is documented in our public exits record.

A Top Names Performance Update

Before we get to this week’s top ten names, let’s look at the final, 6-month performance of our top ten names from April 30th.

Over the next 6 months, our top ten names from April 30th, 2026 returned 41.72%, versus 4.46% for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).

So far, we’ve got 6-month returns for 175 weekly top names cohorts since we started this Substack at the end of December, 2022.

[Skipping ahead so this post doesn’t exceed email length—you can see the top names returns for every week here]

The most recent cohorts and the average across all 175 completed cohorts:

And as you can see above, our top names have averaged returns of 18.06% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 9.87%. You can see an interactive version of the table above here, where you can click on each date and see a chart showing each of the holdings that week.

This Week’s Top Names

Below are Portfolio Armor’s current top ten names as of Thursday’s close.

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A Brutal Reversal

The Nasdaq fell more than 5% earlier today. Chip and data-center stocks are taking even bigger hits, with double-digit declines across the AI trade.

The immediate fear is that the Democrats’ midterm sweep will bring pauses in data-center construction. That threatens orders for chips, power equipment and the rest of the AI supply chain, which was already contending with expensive financing.

Credit markets were already showing strain before today’s selloff. The AI buildout increasingly relies on borrowed money. By mid-October, CoreWeave’s 2031 bonds had briefly yielded 16% before retreating to around 14%. Construction delays can push back the revenue needed to service that debt.

Blood In The Streets

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets,” goes the market maxim commonly attributed to Nathan Rothschild.

We keep a watchlist for days like this. The name we’re trading today has already been a winner for us multiple times this year. Recent earnings reinforced our thesis for it, and today’s broad selloff is offering us a significantly lower entry price. That’s prompted a rare intraday trade alert. Our investment case and proposed trade are below for paid subscribers. Before we get to that, a few notes about how you can limit your downside risk in light of today’s market conditions.

Don’t Die—Limit Your Downside Risk

As a reminder, our iPhone hedging app scans for the optimal puts and collars to protect your stocks and ETFs at the lowest possible cost. Enter what you own and the largest decline you’re willing to accept, and the app does the rest. Tap or click the illustration below to see the app.

On the web, Portfolio Armor Basic includes those individual-position hedging tools plus our daily Top Names.

Across 175 completed weekly cohorts, our Top Names averaged 18.06% over the next six months, versus 9.87% for SPY.

Portfolio Armor Premium adds our hedged portfolio construction tool, which combines our hedging algorithm with our top names: enter a dollar amount, and the maximum decline you’re willing to risk over the next six months, and it constructs a hedged portfolio designed to maximize your potential return while strictly limiting your risk to your stated risk tolerance.

Three Ways To Invest

Our Substack options trades are our most aggressive approach. Buying our system’s Top Names gives you unhedged stock exposure. The Hedged Portfolio Method builds protection into every position.

The graphic below compares representative return illustrations for those three approaches, with protection built into the third. Tap it for the underlying records and calculations.

Today’s Blood In The Streets Trade

Theme: AI optical interconnect bottleneck.

RSI: 38; Chartmill Technical Rating: 4; Setup Rating: 3; Fundamental Rating: 4

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The Case For Biotech Now

Large pharmaceutical companies have money to invest and pipelines to replenish. Pfizer just raised its revenue outlook to $62 billion–$64 billion for this year. Its guidance also includes a roughly $1.1 billion sales hit from generic and biosimilar competition following patent and regulatory protection losses.

That gives drugmakers a reason to acquire promising new medicines. For example, Merck completed its purchase of Terns Pharmaceuticals for about $6.7 billion in May, while GSK completed a $2.2 billion acquisition of RAPT Therapeutics in March. Those deals show how clinical progress can attract a buyer with an established commercial business.

A Changing Regulatory Backdrop

The Food and Drug Administration has also been reshaping its leadership. In September, HHS selected Karim Mikhail to lead the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research and Michael Davis to lead the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, with a stated focus on innovation and access to medicines.

On October 27th, the FDA issued a proposed framework for individualized gene-editing therapies. The same announcement outlined plans to expand the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ access model for cell and gene therapies. Clearer development pathways and a way to pay for treatments would help turn scientific progress into commercial opportunities.

That’s the confluence keeping us interested: advances in medicine, changes at the agencies that review and pay for treatments, and large companies with a commercial need for new products. We’re looking for specific companies and entry points where those forces can work in our favor.

Turning The Theme Into Trades

Our biotech research has already produced substantial gains. Here’s the original September 10th entry plan for Genmab, including our Chartmill ratings.

We entered the full package at a $1.50 net debit. On October 28th, we sold its extra February $40 call for $18.75 after buying it for $2.22—a gain of about 745% on that call in 48 days. That was a partial exit from the original trade.

Today we’ve got three healthcare trades: two ideas from our Multibaggers group and one from our Market Watchers X list. The Multibaggers group tracks outside analysts who’ve identified multiple recent stocks that gained 100% or more. We combine those sources with our own company research, entry signals and options pricing.

Subscribers get the specific orders, maximum entry prices and exit plans below. Our original alerts reach you before the market opens and before I enter the trades myself, with ongoing management after an entry fills.

Today’s First Multibagger’s Trade

Theme: Gene therapy for rare diseases.

RSI: 49; Chartmill Technical Rating: 2; Setup Rating: 7; Fundamental Rating: 3.

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