Redfin Falls Into The Red

RedFin Shares are now on sale too.

Fading Last Month’s Post-CPI Rally

Readers may recall I added some short bets after the big post-CPI rally last month (Fading The Post-CPI Rally). After noting that Carl Icahn was skeptical of the rally, I wrote:

I shared Icahn’s view of the rally, and used it to buy puts on a handful of stocks that spiked by double digits on Thursday. In the event Icahn and I end up being wrong about this being a bear market rally, I looked for stocks with poor fundamentals that might underperform even in a new bull market. These were the four names, along with their percentage gains on Thursday:

  • Riot Blockchain, Inc. (RIOT): +10.62%
  • Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN): +26.49%
  • Carvana Co. (CVNA): +31.62%
  • Redfin Corporation (RDFN): +31.8%

Aside from their weak fundamentals and charts prior to Thursday, they were all in vulnerable industries. RIOT is a bitcoin miner, when crypto is being roiled by the FTX collapse; OPEN and RDFN are in real estate, which remains vulnerable to rising interest rates, even if the Fed tapers its rate hikes; and CVNA deals with used cars, the prices of which sank in Thursdays CPI data.

I’m currently talking with my developers about starting a site (or perhaps modifying this blog) so you can follow these trades in real time.

Fading The Post-CPI Rally, November 11th, 2022.

In a follow up post earlier this month (“After The Carvana Crash”), I noted that I had been wrong about Redfin so far. Not anymore. Even after its 12% bounce on Thursday, shares of Redfin were down 18.55% since I bet against them last month.

Shares of the other three names were down worse:

  • RIOT: -35.96%
  • OPEN: -45.67%
  • CVNA: -62.54%

Tracking These Trades In Real Time

In my November post, I mentioned I was planning to start a site where you could follow these kinds of trades in real time. I have now done so on Substack. You can read about it here.

If You Want To Stay In Touch

You can follow Portfolio Armor on Twitter here, download our hedging app here, or visit our website by clicking the image below.

2 responses to “Redfin Falls Into The Red”

  1. […] our last post (“Redfin Falls Into The Red“), we wrote about how all four of the stocks we bet against last month are now down double […]

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  2. […] our last post (“Redfin Falls Into The Red“), we wrote about how all four of the stocks we bet against last month are now down double […]

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