Porfolio Armor

The Red Wave That Wasn’t

Since we’re not as competent as Brazil at counting votes, we still don’t have full results for the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, but suffice it to say, the expected red wave did not materialize Tuesday night. The GOP’s underperformance nationally, including by some Trump-endorsed candidates, combined with Governor Ron DeSantis’s landslide re-election in Florida, had some commentators saying DeSantis rather than Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024.

It seems a bit premature to put that crown on DeSantis, but my guess is that Tuesday night’s results won’t be good for Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) shares (Readers may recall I bought puts on DWAC earlier in the week, for reasons I laid out here.).

DWAC Update: My guess was right. 

So far though, the midterm results have raised more questions than answers. Below are several that come to mind.

Questions Raised By The Results

2) DeSantis certainly deserves credit for running Florida well and winning reelection handily, but what's his record on endorsements? IIRC, he endorsed Zeldin, and Trump endorsed DeSantis. pic.twitter.com/Vhdg1mPH54

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

3.b) If so, how to explain DeSantis's victory in Florida despite that state being less white than New York? pic.twitter.com/dxbBCnelmJ

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

4.a) Is blaming Trump for GOP underperformance v. expectations tonight whistling past the graveyard?

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

5) The impact of charisma and political skills. @KariLake is phenomenal on the stump, but as I type this, she's trailing in AZ. Fetterman can barely speak and RCP has just called PA for him. pic.twitter.com/eMVIaZ0ACo

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

7) Re 3.c) above (h/t @TrevorSutcliffe). cc @AndySwan: https://t.co/JVGczhbksr

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

9) Is "Trump endorsed low quality candidates" whistling past the graveyard? The Dems won with a stroke victim and an actual dead man (Tony DeLuca) in PA. https://t.co/DT3nRcu2o4

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

10) While tonight's results aren't final yet (because we apparently lack Brazil's competence in running elections), how to reconcile what we've seen so far with these poll numbers? pic.twitter.com/ypwebz2ecH

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) November 9, 2022

Update: The Fraud Factor

A couple of comments suggesting fraud or other improprieties may have played a role in the results. First, by Trevor Lee, the former Trump staffer who won his election to Congress yesterday, noting Florida’s unique efforts to secure the election:

pic.twitter.com/7kaM58uPNx

— Trevor Lee (@VoteTrevorLee) November 9, 2022

And second, by independent liberal journalist Michael Tracey, referring to a report that dozens of polling places in a county where Mehmet Oz was leading somehow ran out of paper and turned voters away.

Local newspaper reports that by early afternoon yesterday, more than 35 polling places throughout Luzerne County, PA had *run out of paper* and voters were turned away. Current tally shows Oz leading Fetterman in the county, 53% to 44%

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 9, 2022

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