I mentioned Mike Whitney’s assertion that the United States welcomed the Ukraine War as a way to cancel Nord Stream 2 and build a wedge between Russia and Germany:
Whitney may have overstated the case a bit there, but his opening quote is apposite:
“The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars– the First, the Second and Cold Wars– has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us. And to make sure that that doesn’t happen.” George Friedman, STRATFOR CEO at The Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs
It’s also worth noting that this has been the “primordial interest” of Great Britain for far longer than it has been for the U.S.: to keep any one power or alliance of powers from dominating Continental Europe. That puts Britain’s enthusiasm for a policy that is wrecking Germany economically in a different light.
A few days ago, the controversial Finnish-German internet entrepreneur Kim Dotcom offered his take on how Germany could end the Ukraine War. I’ve included his Twitter thread on this in full below. Following that, I’ll add a brief example of the Portfolio Armor approach to investing recently, as the economic fallout from the Ukraine War has piled up.
Kim Dotcom on Ending The Ukraine War
The US is not a friend of Germany. In fact they don’t like Germany for having snubbed them in the Iraq war which was based on US lies and deception. That was one of my proudest moments being German, Gerhard Schröder telling the Yankees to fuck off. He did the right thing.
The US strategy in Ukraine is to kill 2 birds with one stone. Unbalance Russia and Germany, hoping for regime change in Russia to get cheap access to its vast reserves of fossil fuels and dictate the future of Europe to Berlin after collapsing the German economy. It’s so obvious.
This war in Ukraine is a war the US wanted and actively provoked. That’s why it funded the Maidan coup in 2014 and installed a puppet regime in Ukraine. The US knew that Russia will not allow a NATO base in Ukraine and that it is crossing a red line by inviting Ukraine into NATO.
After that the relationship with the US, UK, Poland and the Baltic states may sour but that’s OK. They will get over it. Ukraine will get over it. Instead of wasting money on weapons let’s help Ukraine in a big way by building new modern infrastructure. We are great at that.
It’s not too late for Germany to turn this around. Christmas is coming and I would like Ukrainians to have peace, Russians to have security, Europeans to enjoy warmth in front of the Christmas tree and for American citizens to have a look at how to fix their rotten Government 🕊
Here’s an example of our recent approach to investing as the economic impact of the Ukraine War and associated sanctions regime has reverberated through the global economy. This was a hedged portfolio our system created on July 21st for an investor who was unwilling to risk a decline of more than 20% over the next six months.
This portfolio included energy names such as GUSH, BOIL, and DQ, along with bearish ETFs TTT, TMV, and WEBS (which shorts internet companies). The Max Drawdown, or worst-case scenario for this portfolio was a decline of 19.25% if every underlying security went to zero. The expected return here was a gain of about 10% over six months.
Here’s how that portfolio has done so far, as of Tuesday’s close:
So far, this portfolio is up 5.3%, net of hedging and trading costs, while SPY is down 2.01%.
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